NFL Defensive Player of the Year Odds and Picks: Myles Garrett Returns as Favorite
Betting

NFL Defensive Player of the Year Odds and Picks: Myles Garrett Returns as Favorite

Justin Carlucci breaks down the NFL DPOY odds board and offers up three of his favorite picks for 2026.

Published Updated

The NFL Defensive Player of the Year picks market is always fun because you can consider quite a few things: advanced metrics, historical performance and a little bit of narrative. Before we dive into this year’s board, it’s worth looking at the recent history of the award:

  • 2025 – Myles Garrett, DE, Browns
  • 2024 – Patrick Surtain II, CB, Broncos
  • 2023 – Myles Garrett, DE, Browns
  • 2022 – Nick Bosa, DE, 49ers
  • 2021 – T.J. Watt, OLB, Steelers
  • 2020 – Aaron Donald, DT, Rams
  • 2019 – Stephon Gilmore, CB, Patriots
  • 2018 – Aaron Donald, DT, Rams
  • 2017 – Aaron Donald, DT, Rams
  • 2016 – Khalil Mack, OLB, Raiders

For 2026, I’m targeting three names: one favorite, one mid‑range pick, and one longshot.

Odds To Win 2026 NFL Defensive Player of the Year

Before we get into the action, let’s see how the odds are shaking out:

  • Myles Garrett (+400)
  • Will Anderson Jr. (+750)
  • Aidan Hutchinson (+1000)
  • Nik Bonitto (+1400)
  • Maxx Crosby (+2200)
  • Jalen Carter (+2500)
  • Danielle Hunter (+2500)
  • Nick Bosa (+2700)
  • T.J. Watt (+3000)
  • Trey Hendrickson (+3000)
  • Jared Verse (+3000)
  • Brian Burns (+3300)
  • Abdul Carter (+4000)

NFL DPOY Picks For 2026

Good DPOY candidates typically consist of relentless pass rushers or truly elite coverage players. Garrett is the rightful chalk, Hunter gives you a discounted path to a 15‑plus‑sack monster in a favorable division, and Carter is the “trust the metrics” dart if you’re hunting a bigger payout.

As always, shop for the best numbers, and bet responsibly. Let's dive into the picks. Good luck!

LA_rams-logo.svgMyles Garrett (+400)

I usually don’t gravitate toward the chalk in futures markets, but Myles Garrett at +400 is justified.

The jump from Cleveland to Los Angeles puts him in a much better position than he had with the Browns. And that’s very scary.

If Aaron Donald actually comes out of retirement and joins him, you’re suddenly talking about arguably the most dominant defensive line of this generation. How do you block that tandem?

Garrett had a monster year in 2025, winning his second DPOY in the past three seasons. He ranked 6th in the NFL in pass‑rush win rate according to ESPN, on his way to a historic 23 sacks, 60 total tackles, and 3 forced fumbles. He’s posted double‑digit sacks in every season except his rookie year—eight straight years of that level of production.

If Donald returns, dare I say Garrett has a chance to break his own sack record? The 4‑to‑1 odds are warranted. Not all chalk is bad chalk.

HOU_texans-logo.svgDanielle Hunter (+2500)

Next up is Danielle Hunter at +2500, who might be one of the most underrated defenders in football.

Hunter is part of a monstrous Texans defensive line with Will Anderson Jr. on the other side—and Anderson is very live to win this award himself. Anderson’s efficiency and disruption help Hunter produce even more, forcing offenses to pick their poison on protection calls.

Hunter ranked in the top 20 last year in pass‑rush win rate and quietly put together another monster, often-overlooked season: 15 sacks, 3 forced fumbles and 54 total tackles. He’s posted double‑digit sacks in seven of his 10 career seasons, including four straight years of hitting that mark.

The AFC South has some porous offensive lines. Houston gets the Jaguars and Titans twice each, both of whom have plenty of questions up front.

It wouldn’t be crazy to see Hunter sniff 20 sacks in a year where the ball breaks his way and he gets a little fortunate on cleanup and strip‑sack opportunities. I like Anderson Jr. in this market, too, but Hunter’s odds are substantially better. If you’re spreading risk around, Hunter makes a ton of sense.

NYG_giants-logo.svgAbdul Carter (+4000)

I’m rolling with Abdul Carter at 40‑to‑1 as a longer shot.

If you’ve picked up on the theme by now, I like guys who can live in the backfield and cause chaos—sacks, tackles for loss, forced fumbles and turnovers all drive this award. Carter’s raw rookie numbers didn’t leap off the page (4 sacks), but we’ve seen high‑pedigree players make big year‑two leaps before, especially when the advanced metrics love them.

Carter ranked fifth in the entire NFL in pass‑rush win rate and played a decent amount of snaps as a rookie. That combination—strong underlying efficiency and a full‑time role—is exactly what you want to bet on at longer odds. This is very much an outside chance, but we’ve seen much weirder things happen, and the analytics are firmly in his corner.

Published Updated